Medium Range Forecast 8th February

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Andy Woodcock
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Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Andy Woodcock » Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:37 pm

After all the weather excitement of January, February is looking very different with high pressure likely to dominate the next two weeks with just a short interruption next weekend.

This coming week will be dry and somewhat milder than recently as cloud infiltrates the high that has sat over the UK for the last few days. Later this week this high moves away south east allowing low pressure to approach from the west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

By Saturday a slack low pressure area covers the UK so the weather will be less settled with near normal temperatures and clearer air should disperse a lot of the anti cyclonic cloud.

Into the following week and the models are in broad agreement that the Azores high pressure will push another ridge towards the UK which then builds into another UK High, however, the ECM model precedes this with a few days of very mild southwesterly winds. Either way 10 days out we should see dry and mild weather across the UK which will feel spring like particularly if the sun comes through.

So in summary, chilly and cloudy till Friday, sunshine and showers at the weekend, turning very mild by the 16th and dry again by the 18th. Confidence of this pattern developing is medium to high.

If you look even further out the American GFS Model brings in a very mild southerly wind by the 22nd with winds coming from North Africa! Obviously it's a long way out and subject to change but should such a pressure distribution develop then we could see 14c-15c in Cumbria and a very early taste of spring.

Any return of the wintry weather is unlikely until at least late February due to the persistence of high pressure over or to the south of the UK.

I couldn't post charts tonight but will do so during this week.

Andy

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Paul C » Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:16 am

I was going to say thanks for the outlook, but I am not sure I should :D

Thanks good idea for the forum

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Andy Woodcock » Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:42 pm

I know Paul, it's a bit depressing but that's what the models show, I wish they didn't.

Tonight's ECM brings a long fetch south westerly next week with temperatures close to 14c over north east England, I think a period of very mild weather is on the way as pressure builds over Biscay.

It may not last that long but at the moment any wintry weather is a long way off.

Andy

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Andy Woodcock » Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:12 am

First signs of a breakdown in high pressure domination today, this weekend looks more unsettled and a brief colder spell follows on Monday with a few wintry showers on higher ground.

Some very mild weather mid week but the ECM model is picking up signs of a return to cold north westerly winds late February so hopefully winter isn't finished just yet.

Andy

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Paul C » Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:02 am

With record breaking cold in the USA, this can sometimes help us further down the line. Fingers crossed as always.

Convinced it help our last snowy spell ?

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by rjd1000 » Fri Feb 13, 2015 3:39 pm

looked at the models last night

i think both gfs and ecm were showing a n/nw'ly around the 22nd with low pressure over scandanavia and hp in the north atlantic

is this still showing today?

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Paul C » Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:12 am

Looks a little more interesting next weekend, wintry showers ? not sure

Looking forward to Andys thoughts this evening on the week ahead
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Andy Woodcock
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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Andy Woodcock » Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:31 am

Some changes now underway as the Azores a High weakens considerably later next week.

By next weekend all models have us in a strong zonal flow with colder weather digging south with the passage of each system. The detail varies run to run but at the moment the westerly next week wouldn't be cold enough for low level snow, however, by the later on the 22nd upper temperatures are around -6c (see Paul's chart above) which would be cold enough for snow.

So lots to watch out for as things become much more mobile and with sea surface temperatures now reaching their lowest opportunities for snow from the north west does increase.

The heaviest single snowfall in Penrith since 1996 occurred on the 22nd February 2002 (18cms) and was associated with a strong north westerly wind very similar to the 29th January event this year.

It's all 7 days away and subject to change but soon we will be rid of the high pressure which while pleasant was a little boring!

Will do a quick update tonight after the evening model runs.
Andy

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Paul C » Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:53 pm

Cheers Andy -lots of cold air spilling into the Atlantic, at least we have a chance

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Re: Medium Range Forecast 8th February

Post by Andy Woodcock » Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:08 pm

Some variations across the models tonight but the same theme remains in that the weather will become colder and more unsettled next weekend as deep lows pass to the north of Scotland pulling in cold north westerly winds behind.

It's still too far out to gauge whether these would be cold enough for low level snow but the possibility exists from next Sunday onwards.

In these mobile situations things can change quickly so watch the models over the coming days for trends, I still think we are over a week away from anything wintry in Cumbria but once the cold zonality spell sets in it could be around a while.

Things are certainly looking a lot more seasonal than this time last week! Although I have to say this week was a lot colder than I thought it was going to be as mild, Atlantic air never really became established and the first half of February has been well below average here.

Andy

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