December Forecast - Charts

Add everything else here
Post Reply
User avatar
darrog
Weather Nut
Posts: 1930
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:23 pm
Altitude: 183
Weather Station: Davis VPro2
Location: Maulds Meaburn, Cumbria
Contact:

December Forecast - Charts

Post by darrog » Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:55 am

27.11.17. - looking at the charts through to 12.12.17. I would have to say that it looks fairly encouraging - I will gladly take what I have seen.

From 28th high pressure builds in the Atlantic and will be there for the duration of the period (not sure of beyond the 12th) - a blocking high.
However, the UK will always be on its eastern edge and thus a N'ly flow - so windchill will be a feature as opposed to calm and (possibly) very cold.
With the occasional incursion of LP from the east, but most likely maintaining the N'ly flow - there is very much the chance of a wintry first half to the month - although usually it is the east coast that gets the worse (best?) in such conditions.
I may even look at the BBC 1 month forecast when released today - bet it mentions:

rain, snow, showers, brighter interludes, frosts, possibility (x10), hard to tell this far out, and all after a detailed look at today's weather.
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
Maulds Meaburn

User avatar
darrog
Weather Nut
Posts: 1930
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:23 pm
Altitude: 183
Weather Station: Davis VPro2
Location: Maulds Meaburn, Cumbria
Contact:

Re: December Forecast - Charts

Post by darrog » Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:53 pm

From The BBC
Monday 27 November—Sunday 3 December

Gloves, hats and thick coats for start of winter

It will remain cold for much of this week as winds will be blowing all the way from the Arctic. High pressure to the west of us and low pressure to the east will produce strong northerly winds into the early part of December. However this week is starting off on a less cold note, a band of rain clearing the south coast on Monday morning accompanied by milder air from the Atlantic. The cold air will return from the north during Monday and persisting up to the weekend. The strongest winds during the week will be over eastern areas with gales at times along the east coast. There will also be frequent showers over northern and eastern areas, these showers falling as snow on higher ground and even some sleet to lower levels too. There will be an ice risk at nights The driest and brightest weather will be over western areas from southwest Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and the western half of England. Here long sunny spells by day but widespread frosts at nights.
Towards the end of the week, we will begin to see a change to less cold conditions. Atlantic air will feed around the top of the high pressure bringing cloudy skies and patchy rain which will extend southwards across the country during the weekend.


Monday 4 December—Sunday 10 December

The cold air fights back

After a briefly milder interlude at the start of the meteorological winter, it does look as though the cold Arctic air will become re-established across the British Isles. We will gradually lose the grey, damp conditions and replace them with blue skies and blustery showers. The showers will be mainly across northern Scotland but also affecting coastal areas further south. They will fall as snow on higher ground and even some sleet to low levels at times. Inland areas away from the north will enjoy sunny skies by day with frosty conditions at nights. The main feature of the weather will be the biting northerly wind with many layers of clothing required if you are planning to be outside for any length of time. Temperatures throughout the week look set to remain a degree or two below where they should be in early December.


Monday 11 December—Sunday 24 December

Remaining cold but for how long?

At this stage it does look as through the cold weather will persist during the middle part of December with only very small, slow moving changes in the weather pattern. There will continue to be sunny spells and scattered showers, the showers falling as snow on higher ground and possibly to lower levels as the heavier showers pass by. There will be widespread frosts at nights and also the risk of icy stretches. As we move into the second half of December, there is an increasing chance of seeing spells of milder weather with outbreaks of rain and also windy. This will be as a result of further pulses of air pushing in from the Atlantic. However the overall signal from all the various weather computer models is for temperatures to remain on the cold side.


Next week - Its Christmas.... will it be white? Watch this space.
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
Maulds Meaburn

User avatar
darrog
Weather Nut
Posts: 1930
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:23 pm
Altitude: 183
Weather Station: Davis VPro2
Location: Maulds Meaburn, Cumbria
Contact:

Re: December Forecast - Charts

Post by darrog » Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:57 pm

And from the Met'O

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Dec 2017 to Sunday 10 Dec 2017:

Friday is likely to begin cold with wintry showers, especially in the east, and some accumulations of snow are possible on hills. However, rain and less cold weather will probably arrive in the west later, or early on Saturday, before spreading southeast to most other parts through the day. It will be breezy with gales possible at first in the east. An east to west split is favoured on Sunday into early next week. Cold, frosty weather is expected in the east, along with sunshine and showers, some wintry, whilst slightly less cold conditions and some rain is expected in the west. Thereafter, a cold northerly airstream may become established across all areas, with widespread night frost and sunshine and showers by day, the showers wintry even to low levels.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Dec 2017 to Monday 25 Dec 2017:

The first few days of this period are most likely to be dominated by a northerly airstream bringing a mix of sunshine and showers to the British Isles. The showers are likely to be wintry even to low levels, with some accumulations on hills, especially in the east and northeast. Temperatures are set to be rather cold or cold everywhere, with widespread overnight frosts. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of periods of mobility developing, with an associated increase in rainfall (especially across some western areas). This would encourage temperatures to recover closer to average.

Updated: 01:47 on Mon 27 Nov 2017 GMT
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
Maulds Meaburn

User avatar
rjd1000
Area Forecaster
Posts: 2063
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes

Re: December Forecast - Charts

Post by rjd1000 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:47 pm

cold november = mild wet stormy winter so my forecast is...

December - very mild - wet - storms over christmas into new year

January - mild - stormy to start, maybe some colder settled weather later on

February - potential for cold will fail - mild, more settled maybe bartlett high type weather.

winter 0.5c -1c above long term average.

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8481
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: December Forecast - Charts

Post by Paul C » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:53 pm

rjd1000 wrote:cold november = mild wet stormy winter so my forecast is...

December - very mild - wet - storms over christmas into new year

January - mild - stormy to start, maybe some colder settled weather later on

February - potential for cold will fail - mild, more settled maybe bartlett high type weather.

winter 0.5c -1c above long term average.
Interesting ?

December already looking chilly with no storms for at least the next 2 weeks - may stay generally blocked until Christmas ?

User avatar
rjd1000
Area Forecaster
Posts: 2063
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes

Re: December Forecast - Charts

Post by rjd1000 » Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:46 pm

Paul C wrote: Interesting ?

December already looking chilly with no storms for at least the next 2 weeks - may stay generally blocked until Christmas ?
looks mild to me up until Thursday 7th when there could be a short lived? cold snap but my money is on back to mild after that!

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8481
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: December Forecast - Charts

Post by Paul C » Sat Dec 02, 2017 9:09 pm

The Meto view - at least its not toooo mild

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Dec 2017 to Saturday 16 Dec 2017:
A period of wet and windy weather will be in place across the UK by Thursday bringing some heavy rain and gales in more exposed places. As the rain clears to the southeast it will be replaced with some cold arctic air, bringing sunny spells and an increased chance of wintry showers across parts of the UK. It will remain rather windy across all parts, feeling cold by day with overnight frosts. Increasing chance of more unsettled wet and windy conditions through the weekend with an ongoing chance of snow over northern hills. Any milder interludes are more likely to be confined to the south. The unsettled, often windy weather will probably continue into next week before settling down to something more slow moving.

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017:
There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate in the second half of December, however a theme of more slowly evolving weather looks the most likely. This could bring predominantly colder, drier periods with some snow over northern and central areas, and temperatures below average.

Updated: 14:34 on Sat 2 Dec 2017 GMT

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8481
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: December Forecast - Charts

Post by Paul C » Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:51 pm

Well its looking interesting over the next few days. Best bet for widespread snow is Sunday, but its on a knife edge and this "slider" low well may slide away elsewhere. If it does snow there may be a bit in places.

time to add a few charts

This is the latest chart - to me it would suggest we are on the right side of the front, but its way to South - goes against the warning pages
Attachments
Capture7JPG.JPG

Post Reply

Return to “Everything Else”