January 2017 Cold Spell

Add everything else here
User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8558
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:51 pm

Friday 13th - long way off, but some hope on the horizon perhaps ?
Attachments
Capture.JPG

User avatar
rjd1000
Area Forecaster
Posts: 2070
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by rjd1000 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:20 pm

looks a very brief NW'ly cold plunge before the Atlantic pushes back in again.

In a winter like this a 24-48hr cold blip is probably the best that can be expected.

Andy Woodcock
Junior Climatologist
Posts: 459
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:43 pm
Altitude: 135
Weather Station: TFI Nexus Pro
Location: Plumpton, Penrith

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Andy Woodcock » Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:50 pm

The synoptic situation later next week reminds me of late January 2015 with a strong and cold north westerly flow across the UK bringing frequent heavy snow showers to Cumbria. On the 29th up to 10 cms fell across Cumbria with 16cms in Brampton.

Now, no two weather situations are ever the same but potential does exist for wintry weather across the County later next week, the extent and duration of this is very much open to question.

Andy

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8558
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:56 am

The 29th Jan 2015 data is here viewtopic.php?f=63&t=2742&hilit=16cm

Not sure if there will be a repeat this time

Metoffice for Thursday morning as snow showers here
Attachments
Capture.JPG

User avatar
rjd1000
Area Forecaster
Posts: 2070
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by rjd1000 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:15 pm

the next cold shot coming up looks to only last until saturday now before the atlantic pushes in (gfs 12z)

so about 60 hours of cold to look forward to as you would expect really.

nw/n'ly sourced air is usually good for North Cumbria, but how much precipitation will there be?

gfs looks good but tends to overdo precipitation.

saturday night could be cold where has a covering of snow

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8558
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:52 pm

Snow risk for me appears to ve vanishing every time I check the Meto site

Latest offering see below - I understand its just the GFS bringing in the mild ECM and UKMO stick with the cold for longer ?
Attachments
Capture.JPG

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8558
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:08 am

Cold sticks around for longer, but Met Office indicates highs of 3c and min of -2c just Thursday morning any hope of snow, even that looks light

Hoping for upgrades as its gets nearer the time
Attachments
Capture.JPG

User avatar
rjd1000
Area Forecaster
Posts: 2070
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by rjd1000 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:08 pm

you really have to laugh at those met office forecasts

the main symbol for Thursday is sleet, then in the hour by hour bit below, sleet is not shown at all and it is light snow instead.

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8558
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:23 pm

rjd1000 wrote:you really have to laugh at those met office forecasts

the main symbol for Thursday is sleet, then in the hour by hour bit below, sleet is not shown at all and it is light snow instead.
Its crazy - and it constantly changes roughly every 4hrs

User avatar
Paul C
Professor
Posts: 8558
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Location: Brampton
Contact:

Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:25 pm

Tonights effort 1924hrs - not even a flake now
Attachments
Capture.JPG

Locked

Return to “Everything Else”