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 January 2017 Cold Spell 
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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:51 pm 
Professor
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
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Location: Brampton
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Friday 13th - long way off, but some hope on the horizon perhaps ?


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Paul C
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http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:20 pm 
Area Forecaster
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Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
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Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
looks a very brief NW'ly cold plunge before the Atlantic pushes back in again.

In a winter like this a 24-48hr cold blip is probably the best that can be expected.


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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:50 pm 
Junior Climatologist

Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:43 pm
Posts: 458
Location: Plumpton, Penrith
Altitude: 135
Weather Station: TFI Nexus Pro
The synoptic situation later next week reminds me of late January 2015 with a strong and cold north westerly flow across the UK bringing frequent heavy snow showers to Cumbria. On the 29th up to 10 cms fell across Cumbria with 16cms in Brampton.

Now, no two weather situations are ever the same but potential does exist for wintry weather across the County later next week, the extent and duration of this is very much open to question.

Andy


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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:56 am 
Professor
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
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Location: Brampton
Altitude: 117m
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The 29th Jan 2015 data is here viewtopic.php?f=63&t=2742&hilit=16cm

Not sure if there will be a repeat this time

Metoffice for Thursday morning as snow showers here


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Paul C
Brampton. 117m ASL.
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
Imagehttps://twitter.com/#!/pacrabtree
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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:15 pm 
Area Forecaster
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Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
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Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
the next cold shot coming up looks to only last until saturday now before the atlantic pushes in (gfs 12z)

so about 60 hours of cold to look forward to as you would expect really.

nw/n'ly sourced air is usually good for North Cumbria, but how much precipitation will there be?

gfs looks good but tends to overdo precipitation.

saturday night could be cold where has a covering of snow


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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:52 pm 
Professor
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Location: Brampton
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Snow risk for me appears to ve vanishing every time I check the Meto site

Latest offering see below - I understand its just the GFS bringing in the mild ECM and UKMO stick with the cold for longer ?


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Paul C
Brampton. 117m ASL.
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
Imagehttps://twitter.com/#!/pacrabtree
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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:08 am 
Professor
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
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Location: Brampton
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Cold sticks around for longer, but Met Office indicates highs of 3c and min of -2c just Thursday morning any hope of snow, even that looks light

Hoping for upgrades as its gets nearer the time


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Paul C
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http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
Imagehttps://twitter.com/#!/pacrabtree
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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:08 pm 
Area Forecaster
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Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 10:22 pm
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Location: Isel valley, Northern Lakes
Altitude: 140m
Weather Station: Manual
you really have to laugh at those met office forecasts

the main symbol for Thursday is sleet, then in the hour by hour bit below, sleet is not shown at all and it is light snow instead.


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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:23 pm 
Professor
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
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Location: Brampton
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
rjd1000 wrote:
you really have to laugh at those met office forecasts

the main symbol for Thursday is sleet, then in the hour by hour bit below, sleet is not shown at all and it is light snow instead.


Its crazy - and it constantly changes roughly every 4hrs

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Paul C
Brampton. 117m ASL.
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
Imagehttps://twitter.com/#!/pacrabtree


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 Post subject: Re: January 2017 Cold Spell
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:25 pm 
Professor
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
Posts: 8161
Location: Brampton
Altitude: 117m
Weather Station: Davis VP2
Tonights effort 1924hrs - not even a flake now


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