January 2017 Cold Spell

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Andy Woodcock
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January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Andy Woodcock » Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:40 pm

For the last few days the various forecast computer models have been firming up on a potential very cold spell in January that begins ironically enough on the first day of the year.

This first blast of northerly winds will be fairly benign as high pressure will be close by so any snow showers are likely to be light if any fall at all, expect some hard frosts on Sunday and Monday night.

This initial cold snap will be swept away on Tuesday as milder Atlantic air sweeps east but it is the next cold spell commencing next Friday that COULD be very interesting. The models originally had the blocking high over the UK during the second week in January but they have since moved this out into the Atlantic stretching north into Greenland. If this does happen the next cold spell will be much more wintry.

It's still 8 days away which is a long time in meteorology but the Northern Hemisphere circulation pattern is supportive of a severe cold spell across Europe, it's the exact location, duration and severity of the cold that is open to question.

Either way it's time to put the Olive Trees and other tender shrubs into the Greenhouse!

Andy
PS. The MetO have just updated their MRF and a wintry spell later next week is looking more likely, probability of a severe spell is still relatively low but I suspect the chances are increasing.

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rjd1000
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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by rjd1000 » Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:58 pm

personally, i don't think it will happen

The GFS 12Z today has everything too far east and UK ends up under a narrow belt of HP with the usual very mild SW winds sneaking over the top of it.

Possibly a repeat of Sun/Mon next weekend (6th/7th/8th) with the same breakdown to mild air all too quickly

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Paul C
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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:51 pm

I was very hopefull 6hrs ago, but latest model run scuppers it all. Therm

Of course it may flip back.

I am heartened to the fact that the Met Office had declined to change their outlook until today, I am sure they have even more data available than is published so perhaps there will be a spell of cold weather.

At this stage of the year I do far to much model watching, it becomes obsessive and dangerous for your health !!

Lets hope Andy is right and we have something seasonal ESK

Andy Woodcock
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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Andy Woodcock » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:51 pm

Yes GFS and ECM have moved to a milder solution but the MetO update on the Beeb at 21:00 still talks about cold north east winds and wintry showers next weekend.

It's all very confusing but by Sunday night we will have a better idea of the outcome, what ever happens at least it will be different to the gales and rain of January 2016.

Andy

Andy Woodcock
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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Andy Woodcock » Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:24 pm

Big step back from the models today so at first viewing the cold spell is off, yet the MetO outlook has just been updated and remains the same, much colder from Friday with wintry showers and frost.

A curious dilemma as clearly someone is wrong.

All eyes on the late afternoon models for signs of a flip back to a cold solution.

Andy

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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:56 pm

Looks awful on the GFS

couple of Frosty nights and that may be it - Atlantic back in charge in a weeks time or so

Andy Woodcock
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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Andy Woodcock » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:37 am

Yep, it's all over before it had even begun with the models now dropping any idea of a cold spell.

Signs of cold zonality later but really that's just clutching at straws if you like cold weather.

At least it's not going to be wet and windy!

Andy

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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:27 pm

Cheers Andy - come us updated

We often do well out of cold zonality ( dont we ) ?

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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by Paul C » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:49 pm

12Z outlook looks quite wintry again to me ??

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Re: January 2017 Cold Spell

Post by rjd1000 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:56 pm

looks like a fairly unsettled westerly spell of weather coming up once the high pressure is nudged out the way

expect lots of rain here and possibly one or two stormier incursions. colder air at times mixed in could give temporary snowy conditions on mountains etc.

id expect this to last until at least mid- month

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